It’s all on the line when the USA play Slovenia Friday. This game is the pivotal encounter of Group C play, and will define the USA’s World Cup 2010.
Slovenia’s win over Algeria puts them in lead of Group C, and they are the favorites to progress out of the Group alongside England. Only two of the four teams advance. If Slovenia beats the USA they will advance without further effort and the USA, most likely, will not advance.
If the USA, however, can beat or draw Slovenia, the USA will be in a decent position to advance.
A USA loss is almost surely the end of the USA’s World Cup with only two games played.
Here are the point scenarios:
| Group C
Matches 3 & 4
|
USA loses to Slovenia
Odds: 20% |
USA draws Slovenia
Odds: 50% |
USA beats Slovenia
Odds: 30% |
| England beats Algeria
Odds: 90% |
SL: 6 UK: 4 US: 1 AL: 0 |
UK: 4 SL: 4 US: 2 AL: 0 |
UK: 4 US: 4 SL: 3 AL: 0 |
| England draws Algeria
Odds: 8% |
SL: 6 UK: 2 US: 1 AL: 1 |
SL: 4 UK: 2 US: 2 AL: 1 |
US: 4 SL: 3 UK: 2 AL: 1 |
| England loses to Algeria
Odds: 2% |
SL: 6 AL: 3 UK: 1 US: 1 |
SL: 4 AL: 3 US: 2 UK: 1 |
US: 4 SL: 3 AL: 3 UK: 1 |
What If…
- If Slovenia wins, they will be guaranteed to advance and England is almost certain to advance with them.
- If the USA loses to Slovenia, the USA will have very little chance of advancing, especially if England beat Algeria which is very likely.
- If the USA and Slovenia draw, which teams advance out of Group C will all be decided in the third matches.
- A USA win, however, will put the USA on top of Group points, equal or above England.
With the USA down 0-2 to Slovenia, it looked like we had the odds for that game all wrong, but we were vindicated in the end: we predicted a draw (50%), with a little shading toward a US win (30%), and that’s exactly what we got.
The reason for the referee calling back the Adu goal seems to be eluding the soccer world at the moment, and we can think of nothing other than human error.
It all comes down to the final US game against Algeria now