The USA’s come back to draw Slovenia puts them in the position of being unbeaten in the World Cup finals so far, but in great danger of not advancing to the knock out rounds.
Advancing is still in the USA’s hands, however: the USA will most likely advance if they beat Algeria, and the USA can guarantee advancing by beat Algeria by enough goals. Time to shine up the strikers’ boots!
Here is the situation ahead, depending on the England – Algeria game, now in progress!
| Group C | USA drew Slovenia 2-2 | Final game scenario
Realistically the USA must win their last match and have 5 points to advance, but here are the permutations… |
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| IF… | England beats Algeria
Odds: 90% |
UK: 4 SL: 4 US: 2 AL: 0 |
Assuming the USA beat Algeria, if there is a winner in the England-Slovenia match, the USA and the winner of that match will advance.
If USA beats Algeria, and England and Slovenia draw, then the USA, England & Slovenia will all have 5 points and tie breaker rules will come into effect (e.g. goal differential). So it would be a good idea to beat Algeria by more goals than England beats Algeria… |
| IF… | England draws Algeria
Odds: 8% |
SL: 4 UK: 2 US: 2 AL: 1 |
In this case a winner in the England – Slovenia game will advance and a loser will not, and the USA will advance on a win against Algeria.
If the England – Slovenia game is a draw, the USA would finish top of their group with a win over Algeria or if the US tied Algeria, the US would be tied with the England on points, bringing tie breaker rules into effect. |
| IF… | England loses to Algeria
Odds: 2% |
SL: 4 AL: 3 US: 2 UK: 1 |
If the USA beats Algeria, they would be guaranteed to advance.
If the USA ties Algeria they would not advance. |
0-0 England-Algeria at half time.
A draw seemed an unlikely possibility, but that’s where we are unless something happens in the 2nd 45.
England may be more dangerous to the eye, but what do the stats say?
Possession: Algeria had 51%
Shots on target: 5-1 England
Corners: 2-1 Algeria
If Algeria’s defense holds just good enough, they could of course get a draw or even nip the win. It should all rachet up in the next 45…